Last Thursday I spoke at the Bristol Usability Group [BUG] session, Futures Night. The theme was “What are we going to be able to do with a computer in 2025?”

I had five minutes [which I failed to stick to] to describe the future in 15 years. So I decided to talk about the ‘coming’ Singularity, the probability of it turning up before 2025 and what it might mean for those of us working in the UX profession. Keep things light and simple…:)

Was a great evening and thanks to Dave Ellender for inviting me to speak. Not to mention to all those who attended, spoke and had a beer with afterwards. And also glad it sparked some feedback. Happy to continue the discussion @ferg4ddc.

Below is the transcript of my speech in full. Additionally, for those that asked, I’ve included links to some recommended reading.

Transcript of speech

“I’m not going to talk about PCs.
There will be one OS and it will be whatever the web is and we’ll access it via our various devices. All machines and programs will be of the web. Look at Googledocs, Vimeo, Flickr. We increasingly give over management of our data to various clouds.

Only industries inabilty to change models, increasingly complex entertainment machines [like weta’s], the military’s paranoia and the like will slow it down. But as Agent Smith said, it’s inevitable. And for those that don’t get onboard, it will be their undoing in the short-to-medium term.

For me computing started with the web and i guess it will end [as we know it] with the web or it’s successor.

Nor am I going to talk about it successor.
The probable metaverse coming our way. The development of virtual worlds [world of warcraft, mirror worlds [future googlearths], augmented tech [GPS mobiles & RFID tagged stuff] or our lifelogging and the developing real time global conversation [Twitter, Facebook-type communities].

But I do believe that we will become completely co-dependent with it. Completely. We’ll gradually offload our memories and incorporate our identities with it. This is a good thing, I believe.

What I’d like to talk about are out jobs after the Singularity. What should the UX industry be thinking about in the medium to longer term.

I first read about the singularity in Vernon Vinge seminal essay about 7 or 8 years ago. Thought it was incredible. Now I believe it to be credible and likely.

Show of hands: Who has heard of the singularity? So far I’ve mentioned this talk to four people. All looked at me blankly.

It is:
The rapid development of better-than-human intelligence from human technology.
It will not rely on the rules of natural selection for its development.
When it begins, its growth will be exponential
It is the point beyond which we cannot forsee. We are the monkey trying to imagine email communication.

Broadly, there are four main paths to the singularity [am para-phrasing directly here]:

• Neurohacking - improving the brain through biologically and/or introducing technology to support it - ie cybernetics
• Self-enhancing computers - computers are getting bigger and badder and will wake up - often Moore’s law is quoted to support this one. More on this in a mo
• Uploading - to emulate a human brain and upload a person’s mind into a computer. That would create a sentient computer program that can enhance its own code
• Nanotechnology - It is already possible to construct extremely small engines at the molecular level. Nanotechnology, and is often closely associated with so called ‘nanobots’, hypothetical robots that measure only a few nanometers across. Theoretically, nanotech could be used for neurohacking, to create an intelligent computer, or for whole brain emulation

There are those that believe the singularity is due here before 2030. And they ain’t scientogogists…

So the web.

I agree with Kevin Kelly’s view of the web as becoming the One. A single machine. It fits my world view of the future.

Kelly’s proposition is the Internet is now (broadly) equivalent to one human brain. In its structure. The number of connections across the interconnected networks and the like.
Now lets accept that it’s doubling as moore’s law predicts. So by 2025 it should be about as smart as the collective Human race.

Now lets take the second path to a singularity, ’self-enhancing computers’ i.e. large computer networks (and their associated users) may “wake up” as a superhumanly intelligent entity.

A game made this real for me…

Last year I built an ARG game. An alternate reality game. A serious game called Traces of Hope for the British Red Cross. In the process I researched ARGs, designed and built one, watched our game take off and players play, stress and break it. And I observed the collective smart of the group first hand. ARGs made what Vinge and kurtweil were talking about very possible to me.

The AI will be on the web of the web.

My hope is there will be several rounds of AI before we hit true pure machine AI.
i.e. we start with a Human augmented AI.  It will do mundane stuff. It will do smart stuff.
Then we have a chance to humanise the code. Frame the seed AI with human dimensions.

Humanise the code - best I can put it. May even be a naive hope.

But I know this. We’ve begun to turn web technology from engineering lead to human-center led. You and me. And its been a good thing. As the tech gets more complex and build gets quicker, I believe out mandate becomes even more important.

Human-centered design I believe will become critical to humanising the code and it’s interaction with us.

This sci-fi stuff. Its here. Just outside the door. Even if we shut the door, hide under the desk. Its coming in. Remember, it will at least be pervasive. There will be no room.

For me I can put down the sci-fi books of my youth. We now live in those interesting times. Its time to step up and help shape the coming Singularity”.

…

Recommended reading

• Vernon Vinge’s essay on the Singularity - this was what got me started down this path of thought
• Kevin Kelly’s TED talk The Next 5000 days of the web - offering a brilliant view of the web as about the same as a human brain right now. And then where it could be in 15 years time
• There’s a Singularity University - somewhere to send my kids when their old enough
• A bucketload of essays on the Singularity from Kurzweil’s AI
• And from that bucketload, recommend Kurweil’s [one the Singularity founders] Intelligent Universe intro essay. Which I have to say bent my mind a little, but gotta love his thinking
• Long Bets - bets and predictions for the future from those [including Kevin Kelly] who take the whole future navel gazing thing seriously
• And the rest of my Delicious futurism links

Welcome comments and feedback @ferg4ddc via Twitter.

Today I expressed my position regarding PDF usage online for providing content to users:
“there’s nothing worse than a good idea” e.g. PCs, TV remotes etc. Well PDFs. WTF! Who decided HTML wasn’t working?! Missed that mtng.” on Twitter.
Further to my comments, plus friends and colleagues comments, @pdfsage from the Adobe Acrobat User forum questioned the validity of my statement via Twitter: “Why would you think that putting something in a PDF “hides” it. PDFs provide for rich semantic as well as presentational aspects”.

So here’s the longer, more detailed version of my position. I hope that this will help to explain the context of my comments and I look forward to opening up further dialogue with @pdfsage and friends.

One caveat: This is my view. I don’t expect everyone to agree with me. Nor are these views held by my clients. Even when I’ve suggested to them that they knock the habit on the head.

So what do I mean…

My issue arises out of the use of PDFs by content providers for content being provided online, instead of creating [or converting said content] in HTML [or XML].

Here is an example scenario: You search for some content on a website. You find a short paragraph about the subject in question and then find that the rest of the content is in a .PDF file. You then need to open the .PDF file, access said content in a PDF reader/browser and then read through the content in this new platform. Examples include a user manual, a case study etc.

Why does this happen? There are several reasons, mainly all historic. Here’s Mike Hughes article PDF Manuals: The Wrong Paradigm for an Online Experience which explain in detail this very issue in relation to the Help file.
And these last few lines best express my issue. I just provided a URL link to a page of content written in HTML. You clicked on the link and it opened in your web browser. I even set the link to open in the same window. So instead of rehashing what the author Mike Hughes says [well], just imagine that that page of content was wrapped up in .PDF. Would it have been more useful to you in a .PDF? And now there’s only one argument left, “yeah but, I want to print it”.

As Jacob Nielsen correctly sums up “PDF is great for one thing and one thing only: printing documents” from his article PDF: Unfit for Human Consumption. But content authors continue to provide online content in them. Not for printing, just because they believe its the most fit form of consumption as it holds truer to the print format. Nielsen does go on to provide specific alternative recommendation in his later article Gateway Pages Prevent PDF Shock. My issue is they stop all the very useful, marvellous things that HTML web content offers: linkable, search-able, editable and changeable. And then there’s all the other ancillary functions that have grown up around it e.g. commenting, rehashing and repurposing. But lets get back to my first contention about PDFs being a good idea.

“There’s nothing worse than a good idea” e.g. PCs, TV remotes etc. Well PDFs…” I think PDFs were a good idea. The ability to offer a format that ‘everyone’ can view a file in. The data and signature encryption. The ability to pass a file that cannot be edited. But like all good ideas, they long outlive their usefulness. Not to mention, function-creep. Forms?! Embedding videos? Not better, just like what it parodies, the paper file or book. @pdfsage I looked on your site and spotted the following categories: 3D, Accessibility, Collaboration & Commenting, Forms: Acrobat, Geospatial & Mapping, JavaScript, Printing & Prepress, Rich Media, Security & Standards. It could be argued that its great that PDFs can do all these things. Staying abreast of the common trends of digital. I wouldn’t. Also it could equally be argued that you can’t blame the tools. Its not the PDFs fault, its how its being used. PDFs are useful for printing. Not as an alternative browser to the main ones rendering HTML.

You contend that PDFs offer “rich semantic as well as presentational aspects”. Richer than what? XML? No, we do not have the semantic web many of us want. On the way but not yet. Web services and mashups of them are increasing and paving the way. But I don’t see PDFs as a vehicle for the future semantic web. Regarding “rich presentational aspects”. I guess it depends what you believe rich is. When was the last time that a pdf-based campaign or asset won a major design award? I don’t have the foggiest. But I think I could stick my neck out and say “some time ago. No recently. Maybe not in the 21st century” [And I’m not including PDF-only awards. Or print awards. I’m talking digital].

To reiterate, I believe that content authors who are providing content digitally, should create the content in HTML or XML. Not PDFs. My clients should knock the PDF habit on the head.

Welcome comments and feedback @ferg4ddc via Twitter.

The initial online conversation
Below is the online conversation which prompted my post: [this is the chain in full, with my Facebook friends identities hidden]. Imagine for a moment that each post was a pdf you have to open….

Twitter post:
FR[me]: “there’s nothing worse than a good idea” e.g. PCs, TV remotes etc. Well PDFs. WTF! Who decided HTML wasn’t working?! Missed that mtng.” 4:02 PM Sep 16th from Twitfire
[Via Facebook] comments:

NR: “PDF is for print, HTML is for the web”
16 Sep 09 at 12:37pm

DB: “I think you mean “Flash. WTF! Who decided HTML wasn’t working?!” ;)”
16 Sep 09 at 12:50pm

JB: “pdf takes less space.. easier to transport”
16 Sep 09 at 3:38pm

FR [me]: “My comment just got lost. But basically too many people put their content online in a PDF. It’s not linkable nor as usable in that format. Better HTML with good print rules on the page.

Keep havig to deal with PDF content. Should be secondary/extra not primary my contention.

Flash. Not so cousin. Done well and with graceful degrade nice interactions in a potentially interactive environment seems a good thing”
16 Sep 09 at 7:26pm

Twitter post:
“This man, he’d say no! to PDFs http://twitpic.com/hx936. Points for guessing location :)”
4:20 PM Sep 16th from Twitfire
[Via Facebook] comment:
JB: “cribbs causeway outside Burtons?? outside the dry cleaners, it’s superman waiting for his red and blue suit to be cleaned” 16 Sep 09 at 3:38pm

[via Twitter comments]:

alexjamesmorris@ferg4ddc me no get your drift? point lost in 140 chars ;-)
4:27 PM Sep 16th from Tweetie in reply to ferg4ddc

alexjamesmorris@ferg4ddc yeah yeah - i get that. like the theory. it was your last tweet about pdf? html?
about 8 hours ago from Tweetie in reply to ferg4ddc

pdfsage@ferg4ddc Why would you think that putting something in a PDF “hides” it. PDFs provide for rich semantic as well as presentational aspects.
about 6 hours ago from TweetDeck in reply to ferg4ddc

alexjamesmorris@ferg4ddc how is it hidden? pdfs are by their very nature open and searchable?
about 6 hours ago from Tweetie in reply to ferg4ddc

hello @pdfsage! right oh, i’m going to need more that 140 chars to state my position on this. Bear with me and I’ll come back shortly about 6 hours ago from TweetDeck

On Thursday, I ran a really good workshop at Foviance on storyboarding in User Experience [UE]. Great bunch of folks who were up for me showing them a “certain sort of way of doing things”.
Last year while in Turin for my UPA talk, I met Sven from Foviance who invited me to run a session at his office. Foviance run an internal day every so often where they invite folks to come in and talk about stuff. Up before me was an eye-tracking session and then Catriona unning a session on the Opera browser on the Wii platform.

Sven and me decided to take my presentation to its natural next point and run a workshop after the presentation. Here’s some pickies from the Thursday’s session:

Storyboarding workshop @ Foviance

Things I learnt from the session:

• Definitely worth running session as a workshop and not just a presentation
• Running three sessions decreasing in time with increasing structure i.e. storyboarding in boxes worked well
• People dont naturally include gutters between frames
• Show more examples of existing storyboards [but important to limit the well drawn animation storyboards]
• Pull together a video of the process similar to the timelapse one from but needs to be slower and clearer still
• The tidying up exercise was important
• Be good to include a section showing use of the grey marker pen technique

I mentioned a couple of things which became a little controversial:

• The death of the wireframe - didn’t mean it! Just not always great for interactions
• The internet is just three things: communication, information and entertainment”Where’s the commerce?!” which is funny considering my web past having to defend not including commerce. What was it the guys said: communication, commerce and convergence would be better. the three Cs :) Had a good stimulating chat about it

Also over a few pints, there was discussion about the academic dependency in our industry. And I guess its continuing dominance/reliance across the industry. And what place slow-paced academic study i.e. a six year part-time Phd has in our industry - considering the pace of tech development not to mention user expectation. Good, healthy debate. Must have more!
Maybe someone should track the research curve of UE versus Moore’s Law. Maybe someone has…

Related talks:
- UPA conference, Turin, Dec 08

- BUG session, Bristol, Jan 09

- My presentation: Owning the Interaction in Dynamic Environments

Big thanks to everyone at Foviance who took part in the workshop and being so welcoming. And to Sven, for organsing and going partying afterwards with. At least I made my last train back to Bristol :)

Given my job I don’t often bow down to a tech provider, but damn I have to hand it to Apple and their iPhone. They made my happy digital experience both possible and easy. And those two factors are sometimes easy to take for granted. Today though I didn’t.

While prepping tonight’s dinner, I thought, would be really nice if I could listen to the radio. Which I’ve thought a bunch of times since my digital radio died a death couple of months back. But then, attack of smarts (almost like apple correagraphed it) I opened my iPhone, searched the app store for radio, and Lo, there were many. Grabbed a free one, Shoutcast, to give it a try which had access to over 5000+ stations (good chunk of positive reviews, nice), downloaded it, and about 1/2 a chopped onion later it had downloaded and I tapped the icon to fire it up. Quick search for drum and bass and Ho! I found one a bit too hard. Second try, got a station out of new York. And Bo!, happy m’f#cking digital moment :)

While at home my iPhone runs across my wireless network, which might help. But all told, that was exactly what I needed - the radio - and soo easy to make happen. My last phone was a blackberry. Downloading software onto that or any other phone I’ve used wasn’t that easy. By a long way. Or useful [except google maps on the blackberry]

As I write this the spag bol simmers nice. And as Rach wouldn’t let me use the laptop, I’ve written this post on my iPhone.

Here’s one of my spagetti bolonese recipes (written up for Mani a month back):

My spag bol

Persons: Enough for 2-4 [appetite dependent]

Ingredients
- 1kg of beef mince
- x4 bacon rashers, cut into slim strips
- x3 tablespoons of olive oil
- x1 big onion, chop up nice and small
- x2 cans of chopped tomoatoes
- x4 cloves of garlic, chopped up and mushed nice and small
- salt and pepper
- 1/2 cup of boullion* stock
- 1 glass of red wine
- salt and pepper
- good dash of wostershire sauce
- good dash of soy sauce [light, but can be dark. just smaller dash for dark]
- good dash of tomato sauce
- big splash of milk
- grated cheddar cheese [either medium or strong

*boillion stock you can get in any supermarket. Just like stock cubes, but comes in a container and is powder. one teaspoon in with some boiling water.

Extras ingredients:
- 1/2-1 chilli [for added kick]
- chorizo, chopped up into tiny little bits
- beef dripping - my secret ingredient. Couple of teaspoons of this, and ohmygod! ladies within 50 yards of this version drop their pants
- and if you really want to go to town, get a big slice of fatty bacon from your butcher to use instead of the rashers. Like two inches thick and four deep. And chop that up and use it. v nice. Combine these last two ingredients and everyone within 100 yards will swoon at your greatness.

Extra vegetable ingredients
- mushrooms [lots]
- Peppers
[i’ve put all sorts of veg in, see what works for you. But try not to turn it into a big veg bin. Just one extra main veg only. Same rule as with pizzas incidentally]

Extras dont need
- pesto - not really neccessary, although we all feel compelled to try it
- sun dried tomatoes - same with these, but you got to try

So how to cook the puppy…

Rule no 1: Prep everything first, then cook.
Can’t stress this enough, especially when learning a recipe and trying it the first few times. It really will make the difference between cooking stressed or not.

First up a nice big pan - big wok, big frying pan, or big saucepan - but big is the message here. Get it hot, add one teaspoon of the olive oil, and then in with the mince. Add some pepper. NO salt. And stir it till all brown.

Once done, put in on a plate on the side.

[Extra: Dont have to do this. Can just skip to next bit.
Put pan back on heat, get really hot/smoking, and add 1/2 cup of water and “deglaze the pan” i.e. let the water boil and roil, tons of steam come off pan and using a spatula pick up any sticky goodness off the bottom of the pan and stir into the water. Should take about 10-15 secs. And the water should reduce by half. Pour into a cup. This is the good shit. Use this trick whenever you want a bit of sauce]

Pan back on again, get hot, add 2nd tablespoon of oil, and in with the strips of rashers. Let them cook till slightly too cooked. Dump rashers on top of mince [sat on side].

Pan back on heat, turn down to medium heat, in with 3rd tablespoon of oil, scrape, scrape bottom of pan with spatula, and in with the onions. Keep stirring and scrapping for a few minutes till it goes kinda transluscent. Then in with the garlic, for one minute, stirring all the time. And now in with the tomatoes. Stir, stir for another minute. Lower the heat and let it cook gently.

While that is doing its thing, gently, stop and have a drink. Ahhh…

Now add in the:
- salt and pepper
- 1/2 cup of boullion stock
- 1 glass of red wine [don’t use corked wine and be generous]
- salt and pepper
- good dash of wostershire sauce
- good dash of soy sauce [light, but can be dark. just smaller dash for dark]
- good dash of tomato sauce
- big splash of milk
[- and the deglazed cup of beef meat juices from earlier]

Bring back up to a medium heat, back in with the meats, stirring, stirring for a couple of minutes till its all good and stirred in.

Back down to a low heat, and let the puppy simmer for a good hour or two. Three is better. Taste every 30 minutes, mainly to whet your appetite and remind yourself what is to come. But gives you also the chance to check flavour and adjust.

Rule no 2: how to improve the flavour by x10.
it always taste’s better the next day. If you can, make the bol the day before and just let it sit, covered, without heat. And then when you’re ready, heat it up, till really really piping.

Add pasta. Really its got to be spagetti. I think I’ve tried almost every other pasta with it and they are all inferior. Not sure why, but then I guess everyone else thinks the same as its called ’spagetti’ bolognese and not ‘penne’ bolognese :)

How to cook the pasta
- Boiling water, well salted.
- Add spagetti and stir it. Dont leave it.
- 8 mins max. Potentially 7.

So many say you should mix the spag with the bol before you plate. Your choice. But…

Rule no 3: spag and bol should both be piping hot when they meet. And then…

I like plenty of grated cheddar cheese on top of mine.

Thats about it. There are many variations on this theme - and lasagne and chilli con carne are not very far from this dish either.

Additionally, if you need to quickly extend it [up to 6], just add enough pasta for 6 and a can or two of extra tomatoes. And heat through and mix the pasta and bol before serving. No one will be the wiser.

But it is the heavy-set don when its done right.